Washington is keeping the pressure on Beijing

Wed, Mar 31, 2021 page8 Washington is keeping the pressure on Beijing By Chin Heng-wei 金恒煒 The big question after US President Joe Biden was elected was whether he would change former US president Donald Trump’s China policies. Since his inauguration, Biden has lived up to the general expectation that he would not, although he has changed strategy. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has repeatedly stressed that Trump’s tough stance on China was correct and said it was helpful to US foreign policy. While continuing Trump’s China policy, the Biden administration has been working to cooperate with democratic countries to “contain” China. Trump laid bare Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) aspiration to become an “emperor” and made Americans confront China’s uncivilized rise head-on, paving the way for an effective tactic for the post-Trump era. In a two-pronged approach, the White House and the US Congress are opposing China. The US’ Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act has been reintroduced in Congress, which would “authorize the president to use military force for the purpose of securing and defending Taiwan against armed attack,” while a congressional resolution has been proposed calling for the establishment of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the US, the abandonment of the “one China” policy, and the recognition of Taiwan as an independent state. Two things in particular are annoying China: First, US Navy Admiral Philip Davidson has said that the US must continue “consistent and persistent arms sales” to Taiwan and the US’ strategic ambiguity should be “reconsidered routinely.” At a meeting at the US House of Representatives’ Foreign Affairs Committee, Blinken said that a push for Taiwan to be granted WHO membership would be initiated and that he would invite Taiwan, which he referred to as a “country,” to a democracy summit hosted by Biden. The second irritant to China is the attempt to contain it. The US and the EU agreed on a temporary suspension of mutual tariffs on aircraft, wine, food and other products with the goal to focus on China, while it restarted the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Australia, India and Japan in shared opposition to Beijing. On March 16, Blinken and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Toshimitsu Motegi and Japanese Minister of Defense Nobuo Kishi in Tokyo. The two parties stressed the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Blinken traveled to Alaska for talks with China. The US intentionally picked remote Alaska for the meeting after China held a Sino-US summit in Urumqi in Xinjiang. The political significance is self-evident. Prior to the US meeting, Washington announced sanctions on 24 Chinese officials for eroding democracy in Hong Kong, and revoked authorization for China Unicom Americas and Pacific Networks to provide US telecommunications services, causing China to lose face. After the talks in Alaska, the heat was turned up further. Japan let it be known, via a Kyodo report, that the US and Japan would cooperate closely should China make aggressive moves against Taiwan; the EU — for the first time in 30 years — placed sanctions on China due to human rights abuses; and 23 Republican lawmakers wrote a letter calling on Biden to initiate talks on signing a free-trade agreement with Taiwan, while US representatives proposed a bill to add Taiwan to the “NATO Plus” group of Washington allies. China’s hegemonic behavior, and the way it treats its own citizens, minorities such as the Tibetans and Uighurs, as well as Hong Kongers, comes as little surprise to Taiwan, but now the world is seeing the sense in containing China. Chin Heng-wei is a political commentator. Translated by Perry Svensson and Paul Cooper

）圍堵中國 川普蓋棺拜登錘釘

自由廣場》（金恒煒專欄）圍堵中國 川普蓋棺拜登錘釘 2021/03/25 05:30 拜登執政之後會不會改變川普強悍壓制中國的政策？兩個月下來，大約印證了共同的預測：不會，但策略會改變。國務卿布林肯一再強調川普對中國的強硬原則是正確的：「對我們實際上的外交政策很有幫助。」在不變川普大戰略下，拜登政府聯合各民主國家「圍堵」中國。 川普赤裸裸拆穿習大大虛矯「稱王」的野心，讓美國人正面對決中國的非文明崛起；為後川普時代開出無法閃避的有效戰術。 拜登政府與國會雙軌進行抗中路線，國會再度祭出「防止台灣遭侵略法案」，且授權美國總統在必要時，「有限度動用武力」來防衛台灣；更有議員進一步提出決議案，呼籲台美建交，摒棄過時的「一中政策」，承認台灣為獨立國家。真正惹惱中國的有兩大代誌：一是印太司令部司令戴維森（Philil Davison）表示，美國須持續穩定對台軍售，定期檢視「戰略模糊」的適時性；更直接的來自布林肯，在眾院外交委員會上承諾推動台灣參加世衛組織，邀請台灣參與拜登總統籌辦的「民主高峰會」，直稱台灣為「國家」。 另方面進行「圍堵」：拉攏歐盟，同意暫停關稅，把焦點對準中國；召開美日印澳「四方安全對話」，堅定聯合抗共。十六日國務卿布林肯與國防部長奧斯汀在日本召開「二加二」會談，兩國強調「台灣海峽和平與穩定」的重要，之後二人飛到韓國與總統文在寅會面，「第一島鏈」堅不可摧。 接下來布林肯慢悠悠回返阿拉斯加，召開首次美中會談，故意挑選遠在阿拉斯加當會議地點，好比中國召開中美高峰會，把會場放在烏魯木齊；政治意涵不言而喻。會議前夕，美點名制裁廿四位「損害香港自治」的中港官員，同日撤銷中國聯通與太平洋網路公司營運許可，自卑又自大的中共顏面全失。 中國非要接受種種屈辱遠赴安克拉治不可。美國施展下馬威，難怪中國怒從心頭起、惡向膽邊生。 這就是為什麼中國在會議撒潑罵街，宛如古代小說所描寫的：兩軍對壘，小將站牆頭持戟開罵：什麼「美國沒有資格居高臨下」、「我們吃洋人的苦頭還少嗎？」尤其「中國人不吃這一套」，完全義和團口吻與心態！布林肯最後引拜登過去與習近平會面的一句話說：「賭美國輸從來不是一個好選擇」，並補了一句：「現在仍然如此」，一針見血。 美中會談後，中國馬上嚐到苦頭。日本透過「共同社」報導內幕，一旦台灣「有事」，美日將「密切合作」。歐盟首次用人權名義制裁中國，三十年來未有。美國的回應更直接，廿三位議員致函總統，呼籲與台灣啟動ＦＴＡ洽簽進程，更有眾議員提出法案，將台灣視為「北約加」（NATO Plus）國家，在日本、澳州、南韓、紐西蘭之外，網羅台灣。 中國這種土霸王口氣，毛澤東考第一。這回在國際舞台表演，到底讓全世界人見了真章，過去對付國內人民、霸凌圖博人、維吾爾人、香港人，嘴臉如此；台灣人早見怪不怪了。圍堵中國更有理。 （作者金恒煒為政治評論者；http://wenichin.blogspot.tw/）

罷免、公投，人民最大！

自由廣場》（金恒煒專欄）罷免、公投，人民最大！ 2021/03/18 05:30 國民黨最近攻勢很凌厲，把台灣人民拚搏生命好不容易建構的民主機制不害臊的發揮到淋漓盡致；接二連三祭出罷免法，又進行各類公投。說弔詭也真弔詭、說反諷也是反諷，一向反罷免、反公投甚至反直選的黨國，在民主力量下倒地不起後，現在使出罷免、公投利器來當政爭武器；這是用打敗自己的敵人之武器攻向敵人的典型。 國民黨執政時，為了取消韓國瑜與「割藍委」罷免案，兩修罷免法，將罷免門檻提到不能罷免的高度。二○一六年民進黨執政後，終於真正落實罷免法。如果沒有修法，高雄市長韓國瑜不一定罷免得了。重點是，罷免法有用。因為罷韓成功，引發藍營／國民黨「報復性的罷免」，如此勞師動眾，只有桃園市議員王浩宇一人成功；罷免黃捷失敗，陳致中、高閔琳都成不了案。台中的陳柏惟地方派系顏家舊勢力虎視眈眈，能不能成功？固然不知，但卻牽制了台北吳思瑤罷免案不得不喊停。這代表罷免不容易，百分之廿五的門檻不是喊喊就能過關。 四大公投案中，「公投綁大選」及「反萊豬」是國民黨主席江啟臣推出的熱點，重點不在成不成功，毋寧是為連任鋪路，果然帶動了藍營一蹶不振的聲勢。兩公投案二階段連署破七十萬，國民黨召開記者會，表示要在「江啟臣就職滿兩週年」才送件，可見目的所在。此外，同時宣佈協助民團發起的「珍愛藻礁公投」。有意思的是，國民黨從來就是環保的破壞者，馬英九時代決議開發藻礁達二三二公頃，如今卻搖身一變，成為反對的一方！當然是收割環團成果，揩油、吃豆腐兼撈政治油水。這還不是最奇，一方面「護藻礁」，一方面「啟核四」，一面挺環團 、一面打環團，民進黨批評國民黨「護藻礁」的真正目的是「重啟核四」，有理。現在的老Ｋ打過去的老Ｋ，不稀奇，但把錯亂的矛盾帶進了人民選擇中，極不道德。 國民黨無論「報復性罷免」與「叫牌式公投」，讓許多人反感，民進黨中遂有人主張再修法。問題是「罷免」載諸憲法，「公投」載諸黨綱，難道要回到「有目無文」的黨國時代？面對國家機器的強勢，公投與罷免不過是人民小之又小的抵抗／防禦權，一旦掏空兩法，民主可以變成「模仿式的民主」、可以變成「獨斷式的民主」，以民主、進步自稱的民進黨，真敢？再說，任何政黨濫用罷免、公投，人民會用選票制裁；相信人民、相信民主。 「護藻礁」是綠色價值，「公投綁大選」是綠色主張，不管背後有無反動勢力，一律支持。「反萊豬」沒啥道理，因為吃或不吃，主動權在消費者，更何況李遠哲院長表示萊豬在安全範圍內可以食用，比如糖與鈉也是毒，大家都吃；此說合乎科學。此外，萊豬進口涉及台美關係；國民黨意圖太明顯，自不必與狼共舞。至於「重啟核四」？無論拿出多少科學理據都抵不過日相菅直人在三一一地震十年的告白：「核電比較安全和便宜的神話已瓦解。」 總之，罷免、公投，人民最大！

「智」什麼「統」？「笨桶」罷！

自由廣場》（金恒煒專欄）[智」什麼「統」？「笨桶」罷！ 2021/03/11 05:30 中國人最擅長製造口號，國共兩黨都一樣。蔣介石「反攻大陸」的口號喊不下去了，創發「三民主義統一中國」。共產黨更厲害，口號一個接一個，「打倒美帝國主義」，毛澤東吐實說：那只是「空砲」。同樣的，「台灣是中國不可分割的一部分」，就是「空砲」。 台灣史學者周婉窈稽考中國史籍，「台灣是中國神聖不可分割的領土」完全沒有史料可證，結論是「只有歷史文盲才能大聲講」。其實不必訴諸史料，在現實政治上即可驗證。台灣果真是中國的一部分，早被中國吃乾抹淨了，還須拿來當「空砲」說嘴？遠的如西藏／圖博、新疆，近的如香港，中共想幹啥就幹啥，動手就是，哪用得著「口號」來文攻武嚇？尤其在建黨百年及兩會召開的當下，「空砲」一枚接一枚的連發，恐怕為自己壯膽的成分居多。 去年底上海台灣研究所副所長倪永傑提出「智統」，形同宣告所有的「武統」、「和統」全屬「空砲」。可笑的是，倪永傑的「智統」，不僅不智，而且不折不扣是「笨統」（用台語唸成『飯桶』更合轍）。他認為「武統」是下策，即使速統也「代價很大」。至於「和統」，他說時間較長，但皆大歡喜。既然「皆大歡喜」，為何「時間較長」？實則「武統」不只「代價很大」，問題在於動武會不會造成中共政權垮台？這才是重點。 他憑空想出的所謂「智統」，荒謬絕倫；大前提是「實現兩岸中國人大團結，採取和平的、民主協商的方式實現統一，制定一部新的憲法，按照一國兩制的台灣方案完成統一」。所謂「團結、和平、民主協商」，一九四九年老毛的「聯合政府」就玩過了，結果民盟、民主人士清除得清潔溜溜。至於「制定新憲法、一國兩制的台灣方案」，更可笑。中共憲法本是謊言大全，再看「中英聯合聲明」，簽完就被丟入「歷史文件」的垃圾桶，「基本法」的「一國兩制」說廢就廢，「國安法」出爐，香港徹底完蛋。拈出「文明方式」更叫人心底發毛。 台灣既然與中國無關，那麼「一個中國」怎麼來的？一九七二年中國總理周恩來對美國總統尼克森說：「蔣介石到現在還相信一個中國，這是很好的，而我們也可以好好加以利用！」周恩來壓根兒不信「一個中國」，重點只在「可以好好加以利用」。國共「一中原則」也好、「九二共識」也好，不過是「好好利用」的實地戰法。 蔡英文總統此時此刻成立「憲政改革小組」，大家都睜大眼睛看，到底是真的還是假的？是為台灣建構獨立自主的法理地位？還是炫人耳目的像司改一樣，搞花接木騙騙百姓的把戲？不要忘記名列其中的還有幾位「台獨大老」，看看會不會晚節不保。 （作者金恒煒為政治評論者；http://wenichin.blogspot.tw/）

台灣鳳梨與中國拳頭

由廣場》（金恒煒專欄） 2021/03/04 05:30 中國突然宣布從三月起禁止台灣鳳梨進口，是土八路慣玩的游擊戰術；若果真如宣稱是「病蟲害問題」，那麼雙方應遵守世貿組織的規範，先行協商，再做定奪。更何況二○○九年十月馬政府與中國訂有〈兩岸農產品檢疫檢驗合作協議〉，明文規定發生爭議，「應儘速協商解決」；中國片面撕毀協議，凸顯國共聯手讓台灣入彀的劣跡。更重要的是，中國連國際規範也不守，完全彰顯「無法無天」本色。 中國拿鳳梨開刀，當然是起手式，中國黨媒《環球時報》總編輯胡錫進放言威脅：中國要搞台灣的辦法可多了！這是毛澤東的「陽謀」。對台灣最大的教訓，大方面來說，中國是黑幫國家，內無民主、外無文明，小方面而言，與中國打交道風險百分百。結論是「逢中必反」絕對是最佳的防禦策略。 一生奉獻給台灣的農業博士陳世雄憤慨的表示，馬英九時代全力傾中，把台灣得之不易的技術專利免費送給對岸，「光是福建一省，從台灣取得的免費品種超過二千五百種，技術專利超過八百項，害台灣優勢不再。」中國禁台灣鳳梨，確如陳世雄所說是竊取台灣農技，廣東徐聞在二○一六年引入台灣鳳梨今已採收，可取代台灣進入市場；既傷台又自利，一舉多得！ 另一個反證是台灣高科技。前總統李登輝提出戒急用忍政策，規範「高科技、五千萬以上、基礎建設」三類投資「根留台灣」，否則中國必成晶片大國，何需向台灣大量採購？華為創辦人任正非宣稱：「晶片的製造，中國也是世界第一，在台灣。」恬不知恥可見一斑。 中國對台越逼越緊，難怪全球都關注中國會不會或幾時會打台灣？卻較少考慮到更迫切且可能的議題：中國共產黨會不會或幾時會垮？中國的最大危機在習大大，誠如觀察中國達六十年的孔傑榮（Jerome Cohen ）所說：「習近平正播下反對他的種子；習獨裁終會像毛獨裁一樣成為過去。」一九六八年十一月，孔傑榮與費正清、傅高義等哈佛、哥大及麻省理工學院九名教授聯名建言剛選上總統的尼克森，派員到北京與中共密晤。不到三年，尼克森派季辛吉密訪中國。孔傑榮承認自己對中國「莫可奈何」，重點是，他認為「拜登沒有從川普提升台灣的政策上退卻」，值得稱許云。 習近平要跳過鄧小平、江澤民、溫家寶直接遠紹毛澤東，他要當毛澤東第二。華國鋒百週年誕辰，習近平高調紀念，就是掃除或抹煞鄧小平以下接班人的歷史地位，表示從「修正主義」回到毛澤東路線。有趣的是，習近平其實已違背了毛澤東，毛強調「緩稱王」，習近平卻要「稱王稱霸」。一九七二年二月二日，周恩來在人民大會堂向美國總統尼克森表示：「毛主席經常教導我們的一件事，就是一個人一旦自認天下第一的時候，就一定會失敗。」習近平不是毛主席的好學生。 到底毛澤東的話有沒道理？至少孔傑榮已經代下註腳了。會不會應驗在習大大身上？大家可以看下去。 （作者金恒煒為政治評論者；http://wenichin.blogspot.tw/）

Jaw Shaw-kong walked into a trap

Home Editorials Wed, Mar 03, 2021 page8 By Chin Heng-wei 金恒煒 Broadcasting Corp of China chairman Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康), who has rejoined the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) after nearly three decades, has said that he wants to be the KMT’s chairman and presidential candidate. Former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) said that Jaw has got it wrong from the start and risks losing everything. The KMT seems unwilling to amend its requirement that only people who have been a party member for at least one year can stand for election as chairperson. Furthermore, KMT Chairman Johnny Chiang (江啟臣) said he wants to run for a second term. With his party chairman dream in tatters, Jaw also has little chance of running for president. Jaw has got himself into an awkward situation that looks like the “Soong Mayling (宋美齡) trap.” After former president Chiang Kai-shek’s (蔣介石) death in 1975, his wife Soong Mayling was no match for his son Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國), who was a fully fledged politician, so she flew off to the US on a chartered plane. Once she was there, she could no longer influence the political situation in Taiwan. Following Chiang Ching-kuo’s death in 1988, Soong thought she could make a comeback, but she had to grudgingly accept that the much-changed political environment would no longer allow her to have a say in national affairs. All she could do was dream of her lost kingdom. For all her power and influence, “dragon empress” Soong could not make a comeback after 13 years abroad. Jaw is not only puny compared with Soong, he has also spent 25 years in the garbage can of history. Does he really think he can make a comeback? Whereas Soong was stuck in the Chiang-era fantasy of “counterattacking the mainland” and refusing to coexist with “outlaw” communist China, Jaw is stuck in the context of 25 years ago. Jaw faces a younger generation that believes in “natural independence,” but he wants to link up with China. He is way out of touch with public opinion. Jaw wants Taiwan to buy COVID-19 vaccines from China, but a poll by Global Views Monthly showed that only 1.3 percent of Taiwanese would receive a Chinese vaccine. Jaw’s political naivete does not stop there. He has also been clamoring for President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), as chairperson of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), to pledge that she will not pursue Taiwanese independence. First of all, the DPP has a “Taiwan independence charter” and everyone knows it as a “Taiwan independence party,” so even if Tsai does not wish to pursue independence, she could not defy the party line. Second, if the DPP ever dropped its demand for Taiwanese independence, it would immediately turn into “KMT 2.1.” The DPP knows full well that the KMT’s niche is already occupied. Third, whether Taiwan pursues independence would be decided by the public. Even China knows that this is unstoppable, so how could a few phrases of empty rhetoric from Jaw subdue Tsai or crush the Taiwanese independence trend? Fourth, China’s annexation and poor treatment of Hong Kong prove that being “pro-China” is a dead-end. On an ideological and institutional level, the struggle between independence and unification is also one between democracy and dictatorship. If Taiwan had not been democratized, would there be any such thing as “independence”? The latest issue Jaw has brought up is that of a parliamentary Cabinet system. He is unhappy about the president having all the power, with no checks and balances. Alluding to the March 19, 2004, assassination attempt on then-president Chen Shui-bian and then-vice president Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) when they were running for a second term, Jaw went out on a limb by saying: “It feels great to be the president, with all that power. When a president does not want to step down, that is what led to the ‘two bullets incident.’” Jaw lost the thread even more when he said “President Tsai Ing-wen still has about three years in office and cannot serve another term, so why does not she push for a Cabinet system now?” Jaw said that if Tsai does not do so, he would push for a Cabinet system in his first year after being elected president. He also said that if he succeeds in getting the relevant laws amended, he would eventually stand for election as a legislator and aim to become prime minister. He is definitely counting his chickens before they are hatched. Taiwan’s system of government is not so much a presidential system as a super-presidential one. Why did then-president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) want to amend the Constitution in 1997 to remove the Legislative Yuan’s power to approve the premier? It was because he thought that former vice president Lien Chan (連戰) of the KMT would be elected president and that the DPP would win a legislative majority. He got it half right. If Tsai were to amend the Constitution to implement a Cabinet system, the DPP would definitely stay in government forever. Tsai would remain in power in three years’ time, and she could even be in office longer than former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher’s 11 years and the 15-year reign of soon-to-depart German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Chin Heng-wei is a political commentator. Translated by Julian Clegg